Outlook for wind and solar energy development in Vietnam

At present, fossil energy sources such as coal, oil, and gas have been and are making up a large proportion of energy sources for power generation in many countries around the world as well as in Vietnam. The above-mentioned energy sources are also gradually being exhausted, while Vietnam is facing great challenges because conventional energy sources to meet the demand for electricity generation have been and are exceeding the supply capacity. Therefore, with the growth of electricity demand of about 10% per year, it is very urgent to promote research and use of renewable energy sources, especially wind energy and solar energy. for Vietnam. This article presents an overview of the current situation of using energy sources for electricity generation in Vietnam, the potential as well as the outlook for the use of renewable energy sources, namely wind energy, solar energy. the sun for power generation.

Dr. PHAM CANH HUY – HANOI UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY

Electricity demand and structure of energy sources for power generation

Vietnam is one of the developing countries in Southeast Asia with a relatively high increase in electricity demand, and at the same time, the proportion of fossil energy used in power generation is still quite large. In addition to the risk of shortage of fossil energy sources due to the gradually depleting reserves, the use of fossil energy is polluting, greatly affecting the environment is also a reality that Vietnam has to face.

Meanwhile, Vietnam is known as a country with a fairly large potential for renewable energy (RE) but currently only exploits and uses a very small percentage. Up to now, the number of projects of great size and scale in our country is very small, and the proportion of installed capacity of RE power plants in the total installed capacity of the whole system is still very modest. Although there have been many efforts to promote the development of RE and renewable energy sources in the recent Power Development Plans, especially Power Plan VII, the development of RE in Vietnam is still not commensurate with the potential. power.

In addition, Vietnam has not yet met the development goals in Vietnam's Renewable Energy Development Strategy to 2030, with a vision to 2050, as well as the National Strategy on green growth, copper Vietnam has not yet ensured its commitments in the United Nations Summit on Climate Change (Paris Agreement).

Promoting the use of renewable energy is a trend of countries around the world because of their important role and superiority, especially in the context that the technology of electricity production from renewable energy is developing very rapidly, gradually ensuring the ability to generate electricity. compete with traditional energy sources. Therefore, the increase in the percentage of electricity produced from renewable energy is an indispensable requirement for the development of the power system, which should be included in more detail in the Vietnam Power Sources Master Plan.

According to Power Plan VII (adjusted), in 2020 Vietnam's electricity demand will reach 265 billion kWh and by 2030 it will reach over 572 billion kWh. The total installed capacity in 2020 is 60,000 MW and will increase to 129,500 MW in 2030, of which coal-fired power will account for an increasing proportion until 2030. Specifically, if in 2015-2016 coal-fired power accounting for only 34%, it will increase to 49.3% by 2020, 55% by 2025 and 53.2% by 2030.

For electricity from renewable energy (including small hydroelectricity) the increase is still limited. Specifically, about 6.4% in 2020, about 6.9% in 2025 and 10.7% in 2030. Regarding the structure of energy sources for power generation, according to the report of the National Load Dispatch Center in 2015, thermal power accounts for 54.15% of the source capacity by fuel type (of which coal-fired power 28, 88%, gas thermal power 21.85% and oil thermal power 3.42%); hydroelectricity 39.96% and 5.9% are renewable energy in which mainly small hydroelectricity, wind power and solar power account for a very small proportion.

Currently, the three main power generation sources are hydroelectricity, gas thermal power and coal thermal power, accounting for over 94% of the total power capacity in our country's power system. Renewable energy has not been used much for power generation, moreover, up to 88.6% of electricity produced from RE in our country comes from small hydroelectric plants (Nguyen Ngoc Hoang, 2015). In which, wind power and solar power only make a very small contribution to the structure of electricity production in the country. According to the annual summary report of the National Load Dispatch Center, the installed capacity of power sources produced from renewable energy by 2014 is 2,009 MW. Specifically, small hydropower is 1,938 MW, biomass 24 MW, wind 46 MW, solar power 1MWp (National Load Dispatch Center, 2015).

Wind and solar energy potential

Wind energy source

According to a report by Power Construction Consulting Joint Stock Company 3 (PECC3), the wind energy potential at an altitude of 80m in Vietnam with an average annual velocity greater than 6 m/s is about 10,637 MW, with an area of about 2,659 km2, equivalent to about 0.8% of the country's area. PECC3 considers this area to be financially viable. According to GreenID, the technical potential of wind energy in Vietnam is about 27,750 MW .

The Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT) with the support of the World Bank, has conducted a measurement model

Source: Vietnam Wind Energy Information – GIZ Wind Energy Project, 2011

In general, Vietnam's wind energy potential through assessment data is still different due to the different scale and level of research. However, Vietnam is considered to have great potential for this energy source.

Solar energy

Solar potential can be exploited based on solar radiation. Vietnam is an area with relatively large and stable annual solar radiation, especially in the Central Highlands, central and southern coastal areas, and the Mekong River Delta. On average nationwide, solar radiation energy is 4-5kWh/m2 per day. According to the assessment, areas with 1,800 hours of sunshine per year or more are considered to have potential for exploitation. For Vietnam, this criterion is suitable for many regions, especially the southern provinces. The theoretical potential of solar power in Vietnam is estimated as follows:

Source: Hydrometeorological Data Center, 2014.

The South Central and Central Highlands regions have the highest solar power potential due to having the highest land area and total solar irradiance in the country.

According to GreenID, the exploitable potential for electricity production from solar energy in Vietnam is estimated at 13,000 MW. Meanwhile, the total installed capacity of solar cells for electricity production was only about 5 MW in 2015, mainly for research purposes and rural electrification.

Trends in the cost of generating electricity from renewable energy

With the rapid development of science and technology, the cost of electricity generation from renewable energy sources is decreasing rapidly and becoming more and more competitive. According to IRENA's assessment, the cost of electricity generation from solar energy can be reduced by 59% and wind energy can be reduced by 26% between 2015 and 2025. Specifically, the average electricity generation cost for Onshore wind can be reduced by 26% and up to 35% with offshore wind. For Concentrated solar power technology CSP (concentrated solar power) can reduce at least 37% and PV Photovoltaic Technology (Solar Photovoltaic) can reduce up to 59%.

Source: International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), 2016.

According to Lazard's assessment, the cost of wind power production in the US in 2017 was only 33% of that in 2009, down from $140/MWh to $46/MWh in just 8 years. The cost of generating electricity from solar energy has seen an even larger decline, down 86% since 2009 to $46-53/MWh today.

Moreover, increasing competitive pressure will promote continuous innovation, the prospect of electricity generation costs from solar and wind energy sources will decrease quite rapidly in the future.

Prospects for electricity production from renewable energy

The structure of power sources for the period 2011-2020 with a vision to 2030 has been outlined in the Power Plan VII (adjusted) and is summarized in Table 4. Accordingly, electricity produced from renewable energy sources accounts for 6.5 % to 2020; By 2030, this number will increase to 10.7%.

Source: Decision No. 428/QD-TTg, 2016.

When the proportion of electricity produced from RE increases due to the sharp decrease in investment rates for wind and solar power according to the current trend, the ratio of power capacity from renewable energy is completely feasible according to the proposed plan. According to preliminary calculations, the rate of RE can even be increased to 12.6% by 2030 when certain constraints are met.

At the same time, as global and regional markets for solar and wind energy technologies develop, the increased market size will provide opportunities to improve supply chain efficiency, thereby increasing productivity. investment also has the opportunity to decrease deeply. Although Vietnam's electricity planning has also taken into account the participation of renewable energy in power generation, the structure of each renewable energy source has not been specifically considered. The development of the planning therefore requires more detailed data and must be systematically collected and analyzed to identify specifically and accurately the potential of renewable energy sources, technology trends as well as the development of renewable energy sources. trade-offs of policy choices. This is especially important because of the trend of rapidly reducing electricity production costs from renewable energy in the future. In particular, the cost of electricity generation from renewable energy should be compared with the cost of production from fossil energy sources when fully taking into account the external costs related to the destroyed landscape, human health and ecology. affected design, as well as polluted environment.

In summary, the technology trend of power generation from renewable energy shows that the development of renewable energy sources in general, wind energy and solar energy in particular for power generation has been and is having great prospects and is an effective solution. in order to achieve the goals set out on energy security as well as Vietnam's commitment to reduce emissions in the Agreement at COP21. It is also the basis for a strongly transformative future in the energy industry and in renewable energy generation. The shortage of traditional energy sources for electricity production in Vietnam can be completely compensated by the exploitation and use of renewable energy sources if there are appropriate policies. There is still a lack of information and policies to encourage RE development, these barriers need to be overcome for effective implementation to ensure optimal coordination between traditional and renewable energy sources. For a developing country like Vietnam, accelerating the participation of renewable energy sources in general and wind and solar energy sources in particular for power generation plays an important role not only in meeting electricity demand but also ensure the sustainable development of the economy.

References:

1. Decision No. 428/QD-TTg, 2016, Approving the adjustment of the national electricity development planning for the period 2011-2020 with a vision to 2030.

2. Ministry of Industry and Trade, 2013, PECC3 Project “Evaluation of wind sources at selected locations in Vietnam”.

3. Ministry of Industry and Trade, 2011, National Electricity Development Plan for the period 2011-2020, with a vision to 2030 (Power Master Plan VII).

4. Nguyen Ngoc Hoang, 2015, Power Industry Report – Message from the competitive market.

5. Bui Huy Phung, 2013, Energy Development and Green Growth Strategy in Vietnam, Journal of Energy Science.

6. Wind energy project GIZ, 2011, Information on Vietnam wind energy.

7. Green Innovation Development Center (GreenID), 2016, Correcting misunderstandings about renewable energy in Vietnam.

8. National Load Dispatch Center, 2015, Annual summary report, 2015.

9. Hydrometeorological Data Center, 2014.

10. International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), 2016, The power to change: Solar and Wind cost reduction potential to 2025.

11. International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA, Renewable Generation costs in 2014.

12. https://www.lazard.com/

SOURCE: POLICY NEWSLETTER NUMBER 26 (HUMAN AND NATURAL CENTER)

VIETNAM ENERGY MAGAZINE